Wereldwijde jeugdwerkloosheid heeft een recordhoogte bereikt, en de verwachting is dat het nog zal toenemen in 2010. Dit is de conclusie van de Internationale Arbeidsorganisatie (IAO of ILO, een VN-organisatie) in een nieuw rapport dat vandaag uitkomt op de lancering van het VN International Youth Year.
Belangrijkste inzichten van het rapport:
Key findings in youth labour market trends at the global level:
- Between 2007 and 2009, youth unemployment increased by 7.8 million (1.1 million in 2007/08 and 6.7 million in 2008/09). In comparison, over the course of the ten-year period prior to the current crisis (1996/97 to 2006/07), the number of unemployed youth increased, on average, by 191,000 per year.
- The global youth unemployment rate rose from 11.9 to 13.0 per cent between 2007 and 2009. Between 2008 and 2009, the rate increased by 1 percentage point, marking the largest annual change over the 20 years of available global estimates and reversing the pre-crisis trend of declining youth unemployment rates since 2002.
- Between 2008 and 2009, the number of unemployed youth increased by 9.0 per cent, compared to a 14.6 per cent increase in the number of unemployed adults. In terms of unemployment rates, however, the impact on youth has proven to be greater than that of adults. The youth rate increased by 1.0 percentage point compared to 0.5 points for the adult rate over 2008/09.
- In 2008 young people accounted for 24 per cent of the world’s working poor, versus 18.1 per cent of total global employment.
- Young women have more difficulty than young men in finding work. The female youth unemployment rate in 2009 stood at 13.2 per cent compared to the male rate of 12.9 per cent (a gap of 0.3 percentage point, the same gender gap seen in 2007).
- The projections show a longer expected recovery for youth compared to adults. Youth unemployment numbers and rates are expected to decline only in 2011. The ILO forecasts a continued increase in global youth unemployment to an all-time high of 81.2 million and a rate of 13.1 per cent in 2010. In the following year, the number of unemployed youth is projected to decline to 78.5 million with a 12.7 per cent rate. Meanwhile, the adult rate is expected to peak in 2009 at 4.9 per cent and then decline by 0.1 percentage points in both 2010 and 2011 (to 4.8 and 4.7 per cent, respectively).
Regional trends:
- Youth unemployment rates increased by 4.6 percentage points in Developed Economies & the European Union between 2008 and 2009 and by 3.5 points in Central & South-Eastern Europe (non-EU) & CIS. These are the largest annual increases in youth unemployment rates ever recorded in any region. The youth unemployment rate of 17.7 per cent in 2009 in the Developed Economies & European Union is the highest the region has seen since regional estimates have been available (since 1991).
- In most regions, young women continued to be the hardest hit by unemployment. Only in the Developed Economies & European Union were young males harder hit; the increase in the male youth unemployment rate between 2007 and 2009 was 6.8 percentage points compared to 3.9 points for young women.
- In some countries, including Spain and the United Kingdom, there was an increase in inactivity among youth in the crisis years. This implies an increase in discouragement, whereby growing unemployment has led some young people to give up the job search.
- In developing economies, the crisis adds to the ranks of vulnerable employment and informal sector employment. There is supporting evidence of such an increase in Latin America where between 2008 and 2009 the number of own-account workers increased by 1.7 per cent and the number of contributing family workers by 3.8 per cent. The region also experienced an increase in the share of teenagers engaged in informal sector employment during the crisis.
- For almost all regions, slight improvements are forecast as compared with the peak unemployment years (2010 in most cases). Only in the Middle East and North Africa are youth unemployment rates expected to continue on an upward path in 2011. The largest decrease (1 percentage point) in youth unemployment rates is expected for Central & South-Eastern Europe (non-EU) & CIS. The projected 2011 rate in the Developed Economies & European Union would represent a 0.9 percentage point decrease from the previous year. However, the projected rate of 18.2 per cent would still be higher than was ever seen in the pre-crisis period (1991-2007).